We show that high-frequency private payroll microdata can help forecast labor market conditions. Payroll employment is … that complement existing measures. In particular, we develop a set of weekly aggregate employment indexes from 2000 to 2017 …, which allows us to measure employment at a higher frequency than is currently possible. The extensive coverage of the ADP …

This paper combines information from two sources of U.S. private payroll employment to increase the accuracy of real …-time measurement of the labor market. The sources are the Current Employment Statistics (CES) from BLS and microdata from the payroll … benchmarks the data series to an employment census. The CES and the ADP employment data are each derived from roughly equal …

during the recession. The reduction in mortgage supply explains about 15 percent of the employment decline. The job losses …