This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for … particular, we propose two broad categories of unemployment rate benchmarks: (1) a longer-run unemployment rate expected to … prevail after adjusting to business cycle shocks and (2) a stable-price unemployment rate tied to inflationary pressures. We …

disaggregate unemployment and in the cross-sectional differences across individuals of the duration of unemployment spells. The …-space model of Ahn and Hamilton (2016). I found that the contribution of each factor to the dynamics of disaggregate unemployment …

higher wages. This increases firms' incentives to post more vacancies, which makes unemployment volatile and sensitive to … aggregate shocks. The model is robust to two major criticisms of existing theories of sluggish wages and volatile unemployment … explains 70% of unemployment volatility …

Fluctuations in upside risks to unemployment over the medium term are examined using quantile regressions. U ….S. experience reveals an elevated risk of large increases in unemployment when inflation or credit growth is high and when the … unemployment rate is low. Inflation was a significant contributor to unemployment risk in the 1970s and early 1980s, and …

This paper presents estimates of the effect of unemployment benefit extensions during the Great Recession on … unemployment and labor force participation. Unlike many recent studies of this subject, our estimates, following the work of … of benefit extensions is likely modest, with a 90 percent confidence interval of the effect on the unemployment rate …