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We develop an estimator for publication bias and apply it to 156 hedge portfolios based on published cross …-sectional return predictors. Publication bias adjusted returns are only 12% smaller than in-sample returns. The small bias comes from … that can survive journal review, a low t-stat hurdle of 1.8 controls for multiple testing using statistics recommended by …
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Vector autoregressions with Markov-switching parameters (MS-VARs) fit the data better than do their constant-parameter predecessors. However, Bayesian inference for MS-VARs with existing algorithms remains challenging. For our first contribution, we show that Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)...
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