bring to bear information on inflation expectations from surveys, which allow us to distinguish changes in the sensitivity … inflation are now less well informed by macroeconomic conditions; because expectations are important in the setting of current … of inflation to economic conditions conditioning on expectations from changes in the sensitivity of expectations …

same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a … patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price … shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the …

We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation … and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that … featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US …

We propose a parsimonious semiparametric method for macroeconomic forecasting during episodes of sudden changes. Based … the most recent block of observations, and with the matched blocks we proceed to forecast. One possibility is to compare … does particularly well during the Great Recession and for variables such as inflation, unemployment, and real personal …