inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint …, we show that an inflation bias as well as a deflationary bias exist as a steady-state outcome. We assess the predictions … of this model using unique individual-level inflation expectations data across nine countries that allow for a direct …

This paper examines two candidate hypotheses explaining the stabilization of U.S. inflation since the 1970s and 1980s …. The first explanation credits the stabilization of inflation expectations, and assumes those expectations have a strong … positive causal effect on actual subsequent inflation, while the second explanation credits the disappearance of such a strong …

inflation are now less well informed by macroeconomic conditions; because expectations are important in the setting of current …-period prices, inflation is therefore less sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. To distinguish between our two hypotheses, we … bring to bear information on inflation expectations from surveys, which allow us to distinguish changes in the sensitivity …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price … shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the … same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a …

Building on the results in Nalewaik (FEDS 2015-93), this work models wage growth and core PCE price inflation as regime … price inflation that becomes much larger after labor markets tighten beyond a certain point. The results are informative for … assessing the likelihood and risks of meeting certain inflation targets on a sustained basis …

To better understand inflation expectations, we examine newly available data on U.S. households' inflation perceptions …-what people think inflation has been in the past. The overarching summary is that inflation perceptions look similar to inflation … expectations. The central tendencies of the responses for perceived inflation over the past five to ten years are similar to those …