inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint …, we show that an inflation bias as well as a deflationary bias exist as a steady-state outcome. We assess the predictions … of this model using unique individual-level inflation expectations data across nine countries that allow for a direct …

policy rate will become constrained in the future lowers today's inflation by creating tail risk in future inflation and thus … reducing expected inflation. In an empirically rich model calibrated to match key features of the U.S. economy, we find that … the tail risk induced by the ELB causes inflation to undershoot the target rate of 2 percent by as much as 50 basis points …