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We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we...
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Does advertising help consumers to find the products they need or push them to buy products they don't need? In this … paper, we study the effects of advertising on consumer mistakes and quantify the resulting effect on consumer welfare in the …'s exposure to direct mail refinance advertising and their subsequent refinancing decisions. Even though on average borrowers …
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We discuss how cross-country unemployment insurance can be used to improve international risk sharing. We use a two-country business cycle model with incomplete financial markets and frictional labor markets where the unemployment insurance scheme operates across both countries. Cross-country...
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