emphasis on their evolution over the business cycle. Blacks have substantially higher and more cyclical unemployment rates than … comparatively higher risk of job loss. In contrast, the Hispanic-white unemployment rate gap is comparatively small and is largely …

response to the unemployment gap is typically beneficial, even if that gap is mismeasured. Even when the dynamics of inflation … of the responsiveness of price inflation to that slack. Using stochastic simulations of a small-scale version of the … setting the policy rate, and substitute toward a more forceful response to inflation, is overstated. We find that a notable …

the Global Financial Crisis are modestly effective in speeding up the labor market recovery and return of inflation to 2 … unemployment rate during a recession because of transmission lags. As with any model-based analysis, we also discuss a number of c …

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for … particular, we propose two broad categories of unemployment rate benchmarks: (1) a longer-run unemployment rate expected to … prevail after adjusting to business cycle shocks and (2) a stable-price unemployment rate tied to inflationary pressures. We …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price … shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the … same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a …

Building on the results in Nalewaik (FEDS 2015-93), this work models wage growth and core PCE price inflation as regime … price inflation that becomes much larger after labor markets tighten beyond a certain point. The results are informative for … assessing the likelihood and risks of meeting certain inflation targets on a sustained basis …

dispersion reduces welfare by creating mismatch between posted prices and money balances. Inflation exacerbates this welfare loss …