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Indian Economic Outlook 2008-09 and 2009-10
Kumar, Rajiv - 2009
This paper provides an outlook for the Indian economy in the light of the extraordinary global financial crisis, that started in the US, but which has now transformed into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. The Indian economy was slowing down even before the onset of global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011807640
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The State of the Indian Economy 2009-10
Joseph, Mathew - 2009
Despite signs of recovery from the global financial crisis, the GDP growth rate for the Indian economy is likely to be between 5.8 to 6.1 per cent in 2009-10, below the 6.7 per cent recorded in fiscal 2008-09. While there has been an improvement in Indian industry, particularly the manufacturing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011807647
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Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction : evidence from a machine learning approach
Bluwstein, Kristina; Buckmann, Marcus; Joseph, Andreas; … - 2021
-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705396
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Semi-structural credit gap estimation
Lang, Jan Hannes; Welz, Peter - 2018
This paper proposes a semi-structural approach to identifying excessive household credit developments. Using an overlapping generations model, a normative trend level for the real household credit stock is derived that depends on four fundamental economic factors: real potential GDP, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928898
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Latent fragility : conditioning banks' joint probability of default on the financial cycle
Bochmann, Paul; Hiebert, Paul; Schüler, Yves; … - 2022
We propose the CoJPoD, a novel framework explicitly linking the cross-sectional and cyclical dimensions of systemic risk. In this framework, banking sector distress in the form of the joint probability of default of financial intermediaries (reflecting contagion from both direct and indirect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013332831
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Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test
Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - 2009
. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate forecasting power of the DSGE turns out to be similar or better than that of the SPF for all the variables and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003963819
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Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics
Bermingham, Colin; D'Agostino, Antonello - 2011
choice of data transformation. - Aggregation ; Forecasting ; Inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009238003
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Text-based recession probabilities
Ferrari, Massimo; Le Mezo, Helena - 2021
This paper proposes a new methodology based on textual analysis to forecast U.S. recessions. Specifically, the paper develops an index in the spirit of Baker et al. (2016) and Caldara and Iacoviello (2018) which tracks developments in U.S. real activity. When used in a standard recession...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421073
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Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression
Chavleishvili, Sulkhan; Manganelli, Simone - 2019
We introduce a structural quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Unlike standard VAR which models only the average interaction of the endogenous variables, quantile VAR models their interaction at any quantile. We show how to estimate and forecast multivariate quantiles within a recursive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012122051
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Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China
Lodge, David; Soudan, Michel - 2019
This paper presents empirical evidence of the role of financial conditions in China's business cycle. We estimate a Bayesian-VAR for the Chinese economy, incorporating a financial conditions index for China that captures movements across a range of financial variables, including interest rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975616