Most studies of the predictability of returns are based on time series data, and whenever panel data are used, the testing is almost always conducted in an unrestricted unit by unit fashion, which makes for a very heavy parametrization of the model. On the other hand, the few panel tests that...

The few panel data tests for predictability of returns that exist are based on the prerequisite that both the number of time series observations, T, and the number of crosssection units, N, are large. As a result, these tests are impossible for stock markets where lengthy time series data are...

Most empirical evidence suggests that the efficient futures market hypothesis, henceforth referred to as EFMH, stating that spot and futures prices should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This paper argues that these...

The difficulty of predicting stock returns has recently motivated researchers to start looking for more powerful tests, and the current paper takes a step in this direction. Unlike existing tests, the test proposed here exploits the information contained in the heteroskedasticity of returns,...

First-differencing is generally taken to imply the loss of one observation, the first, or at least that the effect of ignoring this observation is asymptotically negligible. However, this is not always true, as in the case of GLS detrending. In order to illustrate this, the current paper...

Very little is known about the local power of second generation panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-section dependence. This paper derives the local asymptotic power functions of the CADF and CIPS tests of Pesaran (A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in Presence of Cross-Section Dependence,...

This paper proposes new unit root tests for panels where the errors may be not only serial and/or cross- orrelated, but also unconditionally heteroskedastic. Despite their generality, the test statistics are shown to be very simple to implement, requiring only minimal corrections and still the...

This paper analyzes the role of initialization when testing for a unit root in panel data, an issue that has received surprisingly little attention in the literature. In fact, most studies assume that the initial value is either zero or bounded. As a response to this, the current paper considers...

In a very influential paper Elliott et al. (Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root, Econometrica 64, 813–836, 1996) show that no uniformly most powerful test for the unit root testing problem exits, derive the relevant power envelope and characterize a family of point-optimal tests....

While the literature concerned with the predictability of stock returns is huge, surprisingly little is known when it comes to role of the choice of estimator of the predictive regression. Ideally, the choice of estimator should be rooted in the salient features of the data. In case of...