We propose an empirical behavioral order-driven (EBOD) model with price limit rules, which consists of an order placement process and an order cancellation process. All the ingredients of the model are determined based on the empirical microscopic regularities in the order flows of stocks traded...

Sudden and uncertain events often cause cross-contagion of risk among various sectors of the macroeconomy. This paper introduces the stochastic volatility shock that follows a thick-tailed Student's t-distribution into a high-order approximate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model...

A number of studies have investigated the predictability of Chinese stock returns with economic variables. Given the newly emerged dataset from the Internet, this paper investigates whether the Baidu Index can be employed to predict Chinese stock returns. The empirical results show that 1) the...

Active government intervention is a striking characteristic of the Chinese stock market. This study develops a behavioral heterogeneous agent model (HAM) comprising fundamentalists, chartists, and stabilizers to investigate investors' dynamic switching mechanisms under government intervention....

This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic. To this end, we use the GARCH-S (GARCH with skewness) model to estimate daily skewness as a proxy for the stock market crash risk. The empirical results show...

With the introduction of many derivatives into the capital market, including stock index futures, the trading strategies in financial markets have been gradually enriched. However, there is still no theoretical model that can determine whether these strategies are effective, what the risks are,...

This paper incorporates the Baidu Index into various heterogeneous autoregressive type time series models and shows that the Baidu Index is a superior predictor of realized volatility in the SSE 50 Index. Furthermore, the predictability of the Baidu Index is found to rise as the forecasting...