We find that 30-minute changes in bond yields around scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements are predictable with the pre-FOMC Blue Chip professionals’ revisions in GDP growth forecasts. A positive pre-FOMC GDP growth revision predicts a contractionary policy news shock...

I find that the U.S. dollar appreciates before contractionary monetary policy decisions at scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and depreciates before expansionary decisions. The federal funds futures rate forecasts these dollar movements with a 22% R2. A high federal funds futures...