This paper documents that the housing cycle, measured by the residential investment share, is a strong in-sample and out-of-sample predictor for the dollar up to twelve quarters. Housing construction is negatively associated with risk premia in equity and bonds, but positively with foreign...

When households consume both nondurable goods and housing services, external habit preference over nondurable consumption generates procyclical demand for housing. Marginal utility falls when housing demand rises and innovations to housing demand arise as a risk factor. Motivated by theory, we...

This paper shows that currency momentum, which cannot be explained by carry and dollar factors, summarizes the autocorrelation of these factors. Carry and dollar factors are strongly autocorrelated and only earn significantly positive excess returns following positive factor returns. Currency...

Limited stock market participation can potentially explain the disconnect between international asset prices and macro quantities. An incomplete markets model in which risk sharing for stockholders is high, generates highly correlated equity returns and relatively smooth exchange rates. Risk...

Using a structural model of default, we construct a measure of systemic default defined as the probability that many firms default at the same time. We account for correlations in defaults between firms through exposures to common shocks. The systemic default measure spikes during recession...