We evaluate the monetary determinants of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia by using the McCallum rule for money supply. The deviation of actual money growth from the rule is included in the estimation of Phillips curves for the four economies by Bayesian model...

We study empirically the role that initial conditions played in the emergence of cross-country heterogeneity in real output loss during the recent global financial crisis. We use a global sample covering over 150 countries and focus on the differences in the determinants of the crisis in...

In this paper, we analyze the growing literature on determinants of foreign currency loans in the countries of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE), applying a metaregression approach. We consider the seven most common determinants presented in the literature and aim at obtaining a...

Among the plethora of early warning mechanisms for currency crises proposed in the literature, there is an approach which has received little attention so far. This rather simple early warning indicator relies on the term structure of relative interest rates, unlike the vast majority of such...

Using data for EU-27 NUTS 2 regions and major cities, we evaluate empirically the role of urban growth spillovers as a determinant of income dynamics at the regional level. We go beyond the empirically well documented static relationship between national income and productivity in urban...

Crespo Cuaresma and Slacík (2007) show that macroeconomic cík fundamentals are rather fragile determinants of currency crises under model uncertainty. The objective of the present follow-up study is to search for empirical support for the first- and second-generation models of currency crises...

In the present paper we examine whether financial markets could have helped predict exchange rates in selected Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, during the current financial crisis. To this end, we derive risk-neutral...

This paper describes the new forecasting tool used by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) to derive near-term forecasts for GDP and imports for five Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries, namely Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. An error...

In this contribution, we tackle explicitly the issue of model uncertainty in the framework of binary variable models of currency crises. Using Bayesian model averaging techniques, we assess the robustness of the explanatory variables proposed in the recent literature for both static and dynamic...

This paper studies the transmission of a foreign fiscal policy shock (assumed to be generated in Germany) to key macroeconomic variables in five Central and Eastern European economies (CEE-5). We use quarterly data from 1995 to 2009 and estimate an open economy structural vector autoregressive...