Phillips (1986) provides asymptotic theory for regressions that relate nonstationary time series including those integrated of order 1, I(1). A practical implication of the literature on spurious regression is that one cannot trust the usual confidence intervals. In the absence of prior...

Consumer theory still maximizes utility subject to a budget constraint, when in fact 2008 data show that consumer debt is 130% of disposable income. Granger-causality tests confirm Consumption precedence over income. We discuss several features of newer US data, such as the ability to start...

A new two-way map between time domain and numerical magnitudes or values domain (v-dom) provides a new solution to heteroscedasticity. Since sorted logs of squared fitted residuals are monotonic in the v-dom, we obtain a parsimonious fit there. Two theorems prove consistency, asymptotic...

While moving block bootstrap (MBB) has been used for mildly dependent (m-dependent) time series, maximum entropy (ME) bootstrap (meboot) is perhaps the only tool for inference involving perfectly dependent, nonstationary time series, possibly subject to jumps, regime changes and gaps. This brief...

This paper attempts to compare the performance of presidents George W. Bush and Obama in the context of reduction of unemployment by comparing the Beveridge curve tradeoffs between vacancy and unemployment rates. We consider monthly data and measure the output of the economy as gross value of...

We provide empirical estimates of the risk-sharing and redistributive properties of the German federal fiscal system based on data from 1970 until 2006, with special attention to the effects of German unification. We find that tax revenue sharing between the states and the federal government and...

We study the public goods problem associated with vaccinations. The externality created by an infection is composed of two parts, the probability of infection and the marginal infections generated if infected. We argue that the key component in a successful vaccination strategy is the second of...

We describe the second-moment properties of the components of international capital flows and their relationship to business cycle variables for 22 industrial and emerging countries. Inward flows are procyclical. Outward and net flows are countercyclical for most industrial and emerging...

What was hiding behind the aggregate commercial bank loans through the end of 2008? We use balance sheet data for every insured U.S. commercial bank from 1999:Q1 to 2008:Q4 to construct credit expansion and credit contraction series and provide new evidence on changes in lending. Until 2008:Q3...

This paper develops a more accurate and robust baseline sales (sales in the absence of price promotion) using Dynamic Linear Models and a Multiple Structural Change Model (DLM/MSCM). We first discuss the value of utilizing aggregated (chain-level) vs. disaggregated (store-level) point-of-sale...