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An exploratory study of populism : the municipality-level predictors of electoral outcomes in Italy
Levi, Eugenio; Patriarca, Fabrizio - 2019
We present an exploratory machine learning analysis of populist votes at municipality level in the 2018 Italian general elections, in which populist parties gained almost 50% of the votes. Starting from a comprehensive set of local characteristics, we use an algorithm based on BIC to obtain a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012140019
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Electoral earthquake : natural disasters and the geography of discontent
Cerqua, Augusto; Ferrante, Chiara; Letta, Marco - 2021
The recent literature on the determinants of populism has highlighted the role of long-term trends of progressive …, the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake paved the way for an impressive and persistent surge in right-wing populism in the most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012494012
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Terrorism and voting behavior : evidence from the United States
Baccini, Leonardo; Brodeur, Abel; Nossek, Sean; Shor, Eran - 2021
This paper examines the impact of terrorism on voting behavior in the United States. We rely on an exhaustive list of terror attacks over the period 1970-2016 and exploit the inherent randomness of the success or failure of terror attacks to identify the political impacts of terrorism. We first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422196
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Unemployment, immigration, and populism : evidence from two quasi-natural experimentsin the United States
Chen, Shuai - 2020
populism in the United States. Specifically, I exploit two quasi-natural experiments, the Great Recession and the 2014 Northern … populism and populist voting in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. I discover that recent unemployment during the Great … wealthy elites by 15 percentage points. Such attitudes are connected with left-wing populism. I identify perceived economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012268928
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Protests, long-term preferences, and populism : evidence from 1968 in Europe
Fazio, Andrea - 2023
In 1968, young people grew up in an atmosphere of strong dissatisfaction and distrust against the status quo. We show that higher exposure to protests in 1968 leads to higher dissatisfaction toward national governments and raises the probability of voting for populist parties. Consistently with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362665
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Ethnic divisions and the onset of civil wars in Syria
Abosedra, Salah S.; Fakih, Ali; Haimoun, Nathir - 2021
While most civil wars seem to have an economic basis, they are generally pushed by political, ethnic, and religious differences. This paper attempts to identify the drivers of the Syrian civil war of 2011 by investigating the role of ethnic divisions in starting a conflict. We integrate a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422195
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National identity under economic integration
Chiang, Chun-Fang; Liu, Jin-tan; Wen, Tsai-Wei - 2018
This study empirically investigates how economic integration influences individuals' national identity. Due to historical reasons and unique cross-strait politics, some people in Taiwan identify themselves as Chinese while others identify themselves as Taiwanese. Using individual survey data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012131236
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Hate at first sight? : dynamic aspects of the electoral impact of migration : the case of Ukip
Levi, Eugenio; Mariani, Rama Dasi; Patriarca, Fabrizio - 2019
In this paper, we test the hypothesis that the causal effect of immigrant presence on anti-immigrant votes is a short-run effect. For this purpose, we consider a distributed lag model and adapt the standard instrumental variable approach proposed by Altonji and Card (1991) to a dynamic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012152189
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The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 U.S. presidential election
Baccini, Leonardo; Brodeur, Abel; Weymouth, Stephen - 2021
What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID- 19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To account for potential confounders, we include a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012391359
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The COVID-19 pandemic's effects on voter turnout
Picchio, Matteo; Santolini, Raffaella - 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the risk of participating in public events, among them elections. We assess whether the voter turnout in the 2020 local government elections in Italy was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We do so by exploiting the variation among municipalities in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012496848