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Prediction intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania : a Bayesian approach

Bratu, Mihaela - 2017

The main aim of this paper is to provide forecast intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania, bringing … methodological novelties in the construction and evaluation of the prediction intervals. Considering the period 2004-2017 as forecast … information has been used, the forecast intervals were very short. The proposed Bayesian technique for assessing prediction …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012114562

Government-led urbanization and natural gas demand in China

Cai, Zhengyu; Yu, Chin-Hsien; Zhu, Chunhui - 2021

constrained two-step static panel data estimation is used to estimate the depreciation rates of natural gas and of all fuel …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012494143

Who benefits from local oil and gas employment? : labor market composition in the oil and gas industry in Texas

Cai, Zhengyu; Maguire, Karen; Winters, John V. - 2018

This paper examines local labor market outcomes from an oil and gas boom. We examine two main outcomes across gender, race, and ethnicity: the probability of employment in the oil and gas industry and the log wages of workers employed outside the oil and gas industry. We find that men and women...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012130597

Local inequalities of the COVID-19 crisis

Cerqua, Augusto; Letta, Marco - 2021

This paper assesses the impact of the first wave of the pandemic on the local economies of one of the hardest-hit countries, Italy. We combine quarterly local labor market data with the new machine learning control method for counterfactual building. Our results document that the economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012585603

The influence of Brexit on the foreign direct investment projects and inflows in the United Kingdom

Bratu, Mihaela - 2017

The main purpose of this study is to assess the impact of Brexit on the foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United Kingdom. As a novelty, compare to previous studies from the literature, the research focused on two proxies for FDI: FDI projects with the associated new and safeguarded jobs and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012113871

Measuring poverty dynamics with synthetic panels based on repeated cross-sections

Dang, Hai-Anh; Lanjouw, Peter - 2022

Panel data are rarely available for developing countries. Departing from traditional pseudo-panel methods that require multiple rounds of cross-sectional data to study poverty mobility at the cohort level, we develop a procedure that works with as few as two survey rounds and produces point...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013470897

Development and validation of a real-time happiness index using Google TrendsTM

Greyling, Talita; Rossouw, Stephanié - 2024

It is well-established that a country's economic outcomes, including productivity, future income, and labour market performance, are profoundly influenced by the happiness of its people. Traditionally, survey data have been the primary source for determining people's happiness. However, this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015073213

Childhood circumstances and health of American and Chinese older adults : a machine learning evaluation of inequality of opportunity in health

Huo, Shutong; Feng, Derek; Gill, Thomas M.; Chen, Xi - 2024

Childhood circumstances may impact senior health, prompting this study to introduce novel machine learning methods to assess their individual and collective contributions to health inequality in old age. Using the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the China Health and Retirement...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014469888

Nowcasting national GDP growth using small business sales growth

Guven, Cahit - 2022

analysis does not relate to using XSBI data to forecast future GDP. Rather it is to take advantage of the timeliness of XSBI …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013455843

Which model for poverty predictions?

Verme, Paolo - 2020

OLS models are the predominant choice for poverty predictions in a variety of contexts such as proxy-means tests, poverty mapping or cross-survey imputations. This paper compares the performance of econometric and machine learning models in predicting poverty using alternative objective...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159707