Using a large sample of U.S. mortgages observed over the 2005-2009 period, we find that foreclosures are contagious. After controlling for major factors known to influence a borrower's decision to default, including borrower and loan characteristics, local demographic and economic conditions,...

One of the most frequently debated issues in Congress over the past few years has been the value of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) relative to the dollar. It is no secret that congressmen in the U.S. frequently accuse China of being a “currency manipulator.” This paper has two objectives. First,...

Many scholars argue that a sizable share of the news about China published in U.S. newspapers engages in “China Bashing.” This paper quantifies the extent of the bashing and examines its effect on Sino-American relations. To measure bashing, I develop an index based on the count of articles...

This paper compares corruption in China over the past 15 years with corruption in the U.S. between 1870 and 1930, periods that are roughly comparable in terms of real income per capita. Corruption indicators for both countries and both periods are constructed by tracking corruption news in...

Using a large sample of U.S. mortgages, we document contagion effects in strategic mortgage defaults. These result from borrowers choosing to exercise their in the money default option. Our findings suggest this choice is influenced by the delinquency rate in surrounding zip codes after...

Using a newly discovered dataset of U.S. bank suspensions from 1921 to 1929, we discovered that banking panics were more common in the 1920s than had been believed. Besides identifying panics, we investigate their determinants, finding that local banking panics were more likely when fundamental...

Measures of bilateral political relations are typically long-memory (fractionally integrated) processes. Appropriate inference and interpretation of this property hinges on the underlying reasons behind it. There are three possible explanations: (i) mechanical aggregation, (ii) bilateral...

We examine whether corporate corruption scrutiny affects corporate investment in China. A corruption news index (CNI) containing firm-specific measures of corruption scrutiny is developed by tracking all articles in the press about corruption for all firms trading on the Shanghai and Shenzhen...

An extensive number of studies investigate the effects of political relations on trade by estimating a gravity model using annual (or quarterly) data. We argue that the use of low-frequency data introduces an aggregation bias because the cycle of moderate political shocks is much shorter...

Theories of bank contagion often highlight the idea that financial crises frequently start as local shocks and then spread to other financial institutions. Conditions in Helena, Montana at the onset of the Panic of 1893 present an ideal laboratory for testing these theories. We use a unique...