Extreme market outcomes are often followed by a lack of liquidity and a lack of trade. This market collapse seems particularly acute for derivative markets where traders rely heavily on a specific empirical model. Asset pricing and trading, in these cases, are intrinsically model dependent....

By solving an incomplete-markets model of multiperiod bond pricing {\it backwards}, we show that the mean and autocorrelation properties of the term premiums in the yield curve can be a reflection of the temporal distribution of uninsurable income shocks, {\it i.e.}, the term structure of...