The debate on the sustainability of public finances is closely related to the analysis of the financial and macroeconomic consequences of government debt accumulation. Focusing on the USA, Germany and Italy over the 1983-2003 period, the central issue addressed in this paper is how the...

This paper aims at assessing the role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time. The emergence of large economic players, like China, is likely to have weakened the role of the U.S. economy as a driver of global growth. Based on a Global VAR modelling approach, this...

We estimate time-varying expected excess returns on the US stock market from 1983 to 2008 using a model that jointly captures the arbitrage-free dynamics of stock returns and nominal bond yields. The model nests the class of affine term structure (of interest rates) models. Stock returns and...

Banks play a role in the corporate governance of firms as well as acting as debt financiers around the world. Universal banks can have control over borrowing firms by representation on the board of directors or by holding shares through direct stakes or institutional holdings. We investigate the...

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates in US data, using spectral regression techniques that allow us to consider different frequency bands. We find a positive relation between the term spread and the change in the long-term interest rate in a...

In the framework of a new money market econometric model, we assess the degree of precision achieved by the European Central Bank ECB) in meeting its operational target for the short-term interest rate and the impact of the U.S. sub-prime credit crisis on the euro money market during the second...