Many real-life decisions have to be taken on the basis of probability judgements of which the decision maker is not entirely sure. This paper develops a decision rule for taking such decisions, which incorporates the decision makerʼs confidence in his probability judgements according to the...

A decision maker (DM) considers the acquisition of a multi-attribute object with uncertain qualities which can be discovered at a cost. DM's problem is to decide how much to invest in the discovery and whether to adopt or discard based on partial information. We characterize the solution in some...

We study first- and second-order subjective expectations (beliefs) in strategic decision-making. We elicit probabilistically both first- and second-order beliefs and apply the method to a Hide-and-Seek experiment. We study the relationship between choice and beliefs in terms of whether observed...

Financial, managerial, and medical decisions often involve alternatives whose possible outcomes have uncertain probabilities. In contrast to alternatives whose probabilities are known, these uncertain alternatives offer the benefits of learning. In repeat-choice situations, such learning brings...

Decision makers are often described as seeking higher expected payoffs and avoiding higher variance in payoffs. We provide some necessary and some sufficient conditions for learning rules, that assume the agent has little prior and feedback information about the environment, to reflect such...

We build on research from neurobiology to model the process through which the brain maps outside evidence into decisions. The sensory system encodes information through cell-firing. Cell-firing is measured against a threshold, and an action is triggered depending on whether the threshold is...

We study a stochastic version of Fudenberg–Tirole's preemption game. Two firms contemplate entering a new market with stochastic demand. Firms differ in sunk costs of entry. If the demand process has no upward jumps, the low cost firm enters first, and the high cost firm follows. If leader's...

In this paper, we introduce a notion of epistemic equivalence between hierarchies of conditional beliefs and hierarchies of lexicographic beliefs, thus extending the standard equivalence results of Halpern (2010) and Brandenburger et al. (2007) to an interactive setting, and we show that there...

This paper investigates the crowding-out effect of formal insurance on informal risk-sharing arrangements via theory and laboratory experiment. Our model and simulation predict that the crowding out of private transfers is often more than one-for-one and will reduce the total risk coverage....