We investigate the cross-sectional return predictability of delta-hedged equity options using machine learning and big data. Drawing upon more than 12 million observations over the period from 1996 to 2020, we find that allowing for nonlinearities significantly increases the out-of-sample...

This paper proposes alternative specifications of the conditional CAPM with dynamic conditional beta and tests the models' performance in explaining the value premium for the period 1963-2011. The conditional alphas on the value-minus-growth portfolio are estimated to be economically and...

We develop an ex-ante measure of expected stock returns based on analyst price targets. We then show that ex-ante measures of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis implied from stock option prices are positively related to the cross section of ex-ante expected stock returns. While expected returns...

We propose the first factor model that explains cross-sectional variation in optionable stock returns. Our model includes new factors based on option-implied volatility minus realized volatility, the call minus put implied volatility spread, and the difference between changes in call and put...

We study the trading of dealers around new bond issues underwritten by their affiliates using a complete matched record of U.S. bond market transactions, bond issue deals, and underwriter ownership structure from 2005 to 2015. Compared to dealers unaffiliated with the lead underwriter,...

We study the trading of dealers around new bond issues underwritten by affiliates using a complete matched record of U.S. bond market transactions, ownership structure, and bond issues from 2005 to 2015. Compared to dealers unaffiliated to the lead underwriter, affiliated dealers pay 30–60...

The low (high) abnormal returns of stocks with high (low) beta - the beta anomaly - is one of the most persistent anomalies in empirical asset pricing research. This paper demonstrates that investors' demand for lottery-like stocks is an important driver of the beta anomaly. The beta anomaly is...

We document that stocks that experience sudden increases in idiosyncratic volatility underperform otherwise similar stocks in the future, and we propose that this phenomenon can be explained by the Miller (1977) conjecture. We show that volatility shocks can be traced to the unusual firm-level...

This is the first study on the risk-neutral distribution of option returns. We derive solutions for the risk-neutral variance, skewness, and kurtosis of call and put option returns and document several properties of these ex-ante moments. We find that the volatility, skewness, and kurtosis of...