Robert Shiller shows that Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) is strongly associated with future long-term stock returns. This result has often been interpreted as evidence of market inefficiency. We present two findings that are contrary to such an interpretation. First, if...

We investigate the stock-picking abilities of prominent money managers, utilizing a unique dataset of stock recommendations published in the prestigious Barron’s Roundtable spanning 1968 to 2019. Our analysis of 3,472 recommended stocks reveals a consistent pattern of outperformance, with an...