We use nonlinear empirical methods to uncover non-linearities in the propagation of monetary policy shocks. We find that the transmission on output, goods prices and asset prices is stronger in a low growth regime, contrary to the findings of Tenreyro and Thwaites (2016). The impact is stronger...

This paper studies spillovers among US and European sovereign yields. We provide a new method based on absolute magnitude restrictions of the impact matrix to identify the countries that were the main sources of spillovers. Despite the large size of shocks from euro area stressed countries,...

We characterise the distribution of expected GDP growth during the Great Influenza Pandemic (known also as Spanish Flu) using a non-linear method in a country panel setting. We show that there are non-negligible risks of large GDP losses with the 5% left tail of the distribution suggesting a...

This paper explores the optimal design of subsidies for hiring unemployed workers ('employment vouchers' for short) in the context of a dynamic model of the labor market. Focusing on the short-term and long-term effects of the vouchers on employment and unemployment, the analysis shows how the...

Do firms reduce employment when their insiders (established, incumbent employees) claim higher wages? The conventional answer in the theoretical literature is that insider power has no influence on employment, provided that the newly hired employees (entrants) receive their reservation wages....

This paper examines the welfare implications of a country joining a currency union as opposed to operating in a flexible exchange rate regime. At the country level, the suboptimal response to domestic and foreign shocks and the inability of setting inflation at the desired level may be offset by...

We use a Bayesian Threshold Vector Autoregression model identified through sign and narrative restrictions to uncover non-linearities in the propagation of energy supply shocks. We find that the transmission of energy supply shocks on consumer prices is stronger in high-inflation regimes,...