Showing 1 - 8 of 8
Global uncertainty shocks are associated with a sharp decline in global inflation, global growth and in the global interest rate. Over 1981 to 2014 global financial uncertainty forecasts 18.26% and 14.95% of the variation in global growth and global inflation respectively. Global uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964545
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968623
The value of the US dollar is of major importance to the world economy. Global liquidity has grown sharply in recent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970151
This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop tests for threshold effects in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971219
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oilsupply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971221
This paper investigates the time-varying dynamics of global stock volatility, commodity prices, and domestic output and consumer prices. The main empirical findings of this paper are: (i) stock volatility and commodity price shocks impact each other and the economy in a gradual and endogenous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012957130
, reduces world real GDP per capita by 7.22 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847206
This paper develops a cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) approach to the estimation of long-run effects in large dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally dependent errors. The asymptotic distribution of the CS-DL estimator is derived under coefficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971242