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Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices : A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach

Ferrari, Davide - 2020

This paper focuses on forecasting quarterly energy prices of commodities, such as oil, gas and coal, using the Global VAR dataset proposed by Mohaddes and Raissi (2018). This dataset includes a number of potentially informative quarterly macroeconomic variables for the 33 largest economies,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844415

Oil Prices and the Global Economy : Is it Different this Time Around?

Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2017

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968623

Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?

Chudik, Alexander - 2017

This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop tests for threshold effects in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971219

A New Monthly Indicator of Global Real Economic Activity

Ravazzolo, Francesco - 2017

a new indicator, named World steel production, and compare it to other existing indicators, precisely the Kilian's index … of global real economic activity and the index of OECD World industrial production. We develop an econometric approach … based on desirable econometric properties in relation to the quarterly measure of World or global gross domestic product to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971220

Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy : A Counterfactual Analysis

Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2017

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oilsupply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971221

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change : A Cross-Country Analysis

Kahn, Matthew E. - 2020

, reduces world real GDP per capita by 7.22 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847206