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Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices : A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach

Ferrari, Davide - 2020

This paper focuses on forecasting quarterly energy prices of commodities, such as oil, gas and coal, using the Global VAR dataset proposed by Mohaddes and Raissi (2018). This dataset includes a number of potentially informative quarterly macroeconomic variables for the 33 largest economies,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844415

Global Commodity Prices and Global Stock Volatility Shocks : Effects Across Countries

Kang, Wensheng - 2017

This paper investigates the time-varying dynamics of global stock volatility, commodity prices, and domestic output and consumer prices. The main empirical findings of this paper are: (i) stock volatility and commodity price shocks impact each other and the economy in a gradual and endogenous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012957130

Trade Uncertainty and Income Inequality

Brueckner, Markus - 2017

more muted. Trade uncertainty has no significant effect on income inequality in countries that are world leaders in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960840

Oil Prices and the Global Economy : Is it Different this Time Around?

Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2017

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968623

The Implications of Liquidity Expansion in China for the Us Dollar

Kang, Wensheng - 2017

The value of the US dollar is of major importance to the world economy. Global liquidity has grown sharply in recent …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970151

Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?

Chudik, Alexander - 2017

This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop tests for threshold effects in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971219

A New Monthly Indicator of Global Real Economic Activity

Ravazzolo, Francesco - 2017

a new indicator, named World steel production, and compare it to other existing indicators, precisely the Kilian's index … of global real economic activity and the index of OECD World industrial production. We develop an econometric approach … based on desirable econometric properties in relation to the quarterly measure of World or global gross domestic product to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971220

Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy : A Counterfactual Analysis

Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2017

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oilsupply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971221

What Drives the Global Interest Rate

Ratti, Ronald A. - 2017

In this paper we study the drivers of global interest rate. Global interest rate is defined as a principal component for the largest developed and developing economies' discount rates (the US, Japan, China, Euro area and India). A structural global factor-augmented error correction model is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971222

Oil Curse, Economic Growth and Trade Openness

Vespignani, Joaquin - 2020

An important economic paradox that frequently arises in the economic literature is that countries with abundant natural resources are poor in terms of real gross domestic product per capita. This paradox, known as the â€œresource curse,â€� is contrary to the conventional intuition that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847204