This paper evaluates structural change and adjustment in Hong Kong with Bayesian estimation of a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate show little or no change in the structural parameters or volatility estimates of the structural shocks before and after the Asian crisis and the...

This paper examines Deflationary dynamics in Hong Kong with a linear and a nonlinear neural-network regime-switching (NNRS) model. The NNRS model is superior to the linear model in terms of in-sample specification tests as well as out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. As befitting a small and...

In this paper we investigate the dynamics of Hong Kong cap-floor volatilities and compare their dynamics with the US cap-floor volatilities. We use linear and non-linear factor models and VAR's. The results show that the first principal components, both linear and non-linear, do a very good job...

This paper examines the options of small open economies in Eastern Europe pegged to the Euro, in a time of crisis. Specifically, should Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Latvia and Lithuania move to full Euro area accession, as Estonia, Slovakia, and Slovenia have done, or follow the examples of...

This paper examines financial market data to assess the likelihood of renminbi revaluation and its implications for Chinese share price increases, given the continuing appreciation of the Euro against the U.S. dollar. We find that the 3-month non-deliverable forward premia are key series linking...