This paper investigates the linkage between the USD and HKD swap curves. We argue that these curves contain important information, which is over and above that provided by the sovereign yield curves and the standard measures of market liquidity, Libor-type interest rates. Our work indicates that...

In this paper we investigate the dynamics of Hong Kong cap-floor volatilities and compare their dynamics with the US cap-floor volatilities. We use linear and non-linear factor models and VAR's. The results show that the first principal components, both linear and non-linear, do a very good job...

This paper examines financial market data to assess the likelihood of renminbi revaluation and its implications for Chinese share price increases, given the continuing appreciation of the Euro against the U.S. dollar. We find that the 3-month non-deliverable forward premia are key series linking...

This paper revisits the question whether economies in Asia are likely to be good candidates for pursuing similar exchange rate policies and ultimately joining together in a monetary union. A number of authors have investigated this question before typically using some variant of the methodology...

This paper uses a semi-structural vector autoregression approach to estimate the relative importance of domestic and foreign shocks as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Hong Kong since the adoption of the currency board. We find that external factors are clearly dominant in the medium to...

This paper argues that inflation targeting should not be defined too narrowly. The principal objective of a sound monetary policy, namely to provide a credible nominal anchor for the economy, can be achieved with a variety of institutional structures and operational frameworks. It is essential,...

This paper argues that the success of inflation targeting is principally the result of having a clear unambiguous goal, price stability, for monetary policy that is determined not only by the central bank but by the political authorities more generally. With such a goal in place, and with...

While the relationship between volatility and risk is central to much of the financial literature it has not been incorporated systematically into assessment of sovereign debt sustainability. This paper attempts to fill this gap by studying how the probability distribution of sovereign debt to...

A central aspect of the recent debate on global imbalances and the US current account deficit is the role of the exchange rate peg being followed by China and other Asian economies. While one view has stressed the need for Asian currency appreciation, another focuses on the importance of fiscal...

Financial integration in East Asia is actively being pursued and will in due course lead to substantial mobility of capital between economies in the region. Plans for monetary cooperation as a prelude to monetary integration and ultimately monetary unification are also proposed. These plans...