Recent analyses relate increases in the growth rate of countries to anticipation effects caused by bidding for the Olympic Games, so called news shocks. We argue that these findings should be interpreted cautiously. First, these analyses may suffer from an omitted variable bias because they...

In this paper we measure the speed at which firms adjust to demand shocks using individual firm data. Identification of shocks is achieved by a combination of quantitative and qualitative judgments on capacity utilisation in micro survey data. A novel feature of our approach is the distinction...

In this paper we develop a business cycle measure that can be shown to have excellent ex-ante forecasting properties for GDP growth. For identifying business cycle movements, we use a semantic approach. We infer nine different states of the economy directly from firms' responses in business...