In this paper we demonstrate that there is evidence of an unstable and nonlinear re-lationship between fundamentals and exchange rates. Modeling this time-varying nature of the importance of fundamentals in a Markov switching framework substan-tially improves the fit of the real interest rate...

We examine the dynamics of bank lending to the private sector for countries of the Euro area by applying a Markov switching error correction model. We identify for Belgium, Germany, Ireland and Portugal stable, mean reverting regimes and unstable regimes with no tendency to return to the long...

We estimate monetary policy rules for six central and eastern European countries (CEEC) by taking changes in the policy settings explicitly into account. Distinguishing rather fixed and more flexible exchange rate arrangements we find that for most countries exchange rates played an important...

We investigate the exchange rate volatility of six Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) between 1994 and 2004. The analysis merges two approaches, the GARCH-model (Bollerslev 1986) and the Markov Switching Model (Hamilton 1989). We discover switches between high and low volatility...

The village funds programme in Thailand is one of the biggest microfinance programmes in the world aiming at improving access to finance and income in rural areas. Earlier studies indicate that the programme is successful in realising its ambitions to some degree. We extend this work by...

This paper examines the puzzlingly high unexploited momentum returns from a new perspective. We analyze characteristics of momentum traders in a sample of 692 fund managers. We find that momentum traders are "defined" by their short-term horizon, by a behavioural view on the market and by a...

This paper examines financial professionals' overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We compare individuals' self-rating of performance with the true performance, both measured relative to the same peer group. The forecasters in our sample show overconfidence on average, although to a...

The G20 summits in 2009 have proposed major changes in governance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Most important seems to be the acknowledgment that the IMF in its current form lacks legitimacy and ownership. Accordingly, the G20 suggests a reallocation of voting shares to emerging and...

This paper examines the relative information shares of the Bund, i.e. the ten-year Euro bond future contract on German sovereign debt, versus two futures with shorter maturity. We find that the Bund is most important but does not dominate price discovery. The other contracts also have relevant -...

The use of technical analysis by financial market professionals is not well understood. This paper thus analyzes survey evidence from 692 fund managers in five countries, the vast majority of whom rely on technical analysis. At a forecasting horizon of weeks, technical analysis is the most...