The peaks-over-threshold (POT) method has a long tradition in modelling extremes in environmental variables. However, the assumption of independently and identically distributed (iid) data is likely to be violated in practical settings, leading to clustering of high-threshold exceedances. These...

In this paper, we introduce the concept of fractional integration for spatial autoregressive models. We show that the range of the dependence can be spatially extended or diminished by introducing a further fractional integration parameter to spatial autoregressive moving average models (SARMA)....

This paper considers blockwise empirical likelihood for real-valued linear time processes which may exhibit either short- or long-range dependence. Empirical likelihood approaches intended for weakly dependent time series can fail in the presence of strong dependence. However, a modified...

A 'lost decade' for the Eurozone is looming on the horizon. Under these circumstances, stable indicators for future economic activity are especially valuable to decision makers. This paper examines the predictive power of the yield spread, one of the most reliable indicators for gross domestic...

A "lost decade" for the Eurozone is looming on the horizon. Under these circumstances, stable indicators for future economic activity are especially valuable to decision makers. This paper examines the predictive power of the yield spread, one of the most reliable indicators for gross domestic...

An OLS and probit framework is used to examine the predictive power of yield spreads with respect to GDP growth and recessions in the Eurozone from the 1990s to the recent past. Credit default swap (CDS) data on sovereign bonds, which provide a direct measure of default risk, are employed as...