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This paper develops analytical methods to forecast the distribution of future returns for a new continuous-time process, the Poisson multi-fractal. The process captures the thick tails, volatility persistence and moment scaling exhibited by many financial time series. It can be interpreted as a...
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This paper uses a new pre-1940 Third World data base documenting real wages and relative factor prices to explore their …, and declining-transport-cost-induced commodity price convergence in particular. Real wages in Asia, the Middle East and … held their own. The ratio of wages to land rents, on the other hand, declined up to World War I, and so did the ratio of …
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By 1914, there were very big economic gaps between the European industrial core and countries around the Mediterranean Basin. When did the gaps appear? Can they be explained by lags in the diffusion of the industrial revolution after 1770, or did the gaps appear much earlier? What about the...
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