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Leading Indicators of the Business Cycle : Dynamic Logit Models for OECD Countries and Russia
Pestova, Anna - 2015
dataset comprising OECD countries and Russia over the 1980-2013 period. Contrasting to the previous studies, I combine data on … OECD countries and Russia into a single dataset and develop universal models suitable for the entire sample with a quality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023501
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Forecasting Moscow Ambulance Trips
Bykov, Filipp - 2015
This paper presents a method and computational technology for forecasting ambulance trips. We used statistical information about the number of the trips in 2009-2013, the meteorological archive, and the corresponding archive of the meteorological forecasts for the same period. We take into...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025379
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Forecasting Russian Macroeconomic Indicators with BVAR
Demeshev, Boris - 2015
This paper evaluates the forecast performance of Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) on Russian data. We estimate BVARs of different sizes and compare the accuracy of their out-of-sample forecasts with those obtained with unrestricted vector autoregressions and random walk with drift. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013012314
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How to Get Away with Murder in Russia : Political Support in the Times of Crisis. Evidence from the Survey Experiment
Sirotkina, Elena; Zavadskaya, Margarita - 2018
Economic crises are expected to erode domestic political support for the existing regime. However, in comparison with democracies, autocracies enjoy more of a leeway responding to economic downturns due to their ability to strengthen their clientelist ties and increase the level of repression...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014120449
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Understanding the Russian Malaise : The Collapse and Recovery of Subjective Well-Being in Post-Communist Russia
Inglehart, Ronald F.; Foa, Roberto; Ponarin, Eduard; … - 2014
1982, the Russia people ranked lower on happiness and life satisfaction than the people of much poorer countries such as … collapse of the Soviet Union, subjective well-being in Russia fell to levels never seen before, reaching a low point in 1995 … been reversing itself, but in 2011 Russia still ranked slightly lower than its level in 1981 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014150327
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Wishful Bias in Predicting US Recessions : Indirect Evidence
Smirnov, Sergey V. - 2016
There is evidence in the economic literature that professional forecasters are unsuccessful in predicting recessions, but the reasons for these failures are still not clear. Meanwhile, this phenomenon has been little studied on the basis of quarterly estimates for various target horizons. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991856
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The Changing Role of Intellectual Resources During the Economic Crisis of 2008-2009
Shakina, Elena - 2014
This study investigates factors of corporate success over the crisis period of 2008-2009. We advocate the idea that investments in intangibles allow a company to be better off, even if the markets go down. The hypothesis put forward in this paper was tested on a sample of more than 300 companies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056995
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Social Development or Social Crisis : Modernization Theory versus World-Systems Analysis
Khutkyy, Dmytro - 2017
The study examines the contradictory claims of modernization theory and world-systems analysis regarding modern social change. While modernization theory argues a human development, world-systems analysis states a global crisis. The two theories are tested against empirical evidence from data of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012961674
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Innovations and Productivity : The Shift During the 2008 Crisis
Teplykh, Grigorii - 2014
Innovations and related knowledge are important drivers of corporate success in modern economies. However the crisis of 2008 strongly influenced investment decisions including R&D expenditure. This may be explained by the fact that the crisis has changed a transformation of corporate resources...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014149697
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Those Unpredictable Recessions
Smirnov, Sergey V. - 2012
Contemporary global economic life is measured in days and hours, but most common economic indicators have inevitable lags of months and sometimes quarters (GDP). Moreover, the real-time picture of economic dynamics may differ in some sense from the same picture in its historical perspective,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111488