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A new look at the discouragement and the added worker hypotheses : applying a trend-cycle decomposition to unemployment

Fuchs, Johann; Weber, Enzo - Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) - 2013

"Using German data this study applies an unobserved-components approach to disentangle the unemployment rate into a … trend component of unemployment, which triggers permanent reactions of the workers, is likely connected to a structural … effect. By splitting up the participation effect of changes in the unemployment rate our analysis differs profoundly from …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010691302

Ziel »Vollbeschäftigung«: Erreichbar oder eine Illusion?

Weber, Enzo; Schäfer, Holger; Schmidt, Jörg; … - In: ifo Schnelldienst 70 (2017) 16, pp. 3-15

Die Ankündigung im Wahlprogramm der CDU, die Arbeitslosigkeit weiter reduzieren zu wollen, um bis zum Jahr 2025 Vollbeschäftigung in Deutschland zu erreichen, hat die Diskussion um dieses Thema wieder belebt. Was ist unter »Vollbeschäftigung« zu verstehen, und kann und sollte dieses Ziel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011795635

Patterns of unemployment dynamics in Germany

Nordmeier, Daniela; Weber, Enzo - Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) - 2013

"This paper studies the patterns of unemployment dynamics in Germany. To provide a deeper insight into the margins of … unemployment adjustment, we employ a structural VAR model and identify the effects of a technology shock as well as two policy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010791530

Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components

Klinger, Sabine; Weber, Enzo - Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) - 2012

components of matching efficiency and separation rate (shifting parameters) as well as unemployment and vacancies. Cointegration …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010791531

Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies

Hutter, Christian; Weber, Enzo - Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) - 2013

forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA's regional agencies are asked about their … expectations of future labor market developments. We generate an aggregate unemployment leading indicator that exploits serial …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010720410

Forecasting with a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function

Hutter, Christian; Weber, Enzo - Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) - 2014

"This paper investigates the role of mismatch between job seekers and job openings for the forecasting performance of a labor market matching function. In theory, higher mismatch lowers matching efficiency which increases the risk that the vacancies cannot be filled within the usual period of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011207081

On GDP-employment decoupling in Germany

Klinger, Sabine; Weber, Enzo - Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) - 2014

"This paper investigates the time-varying relationship between German output and employment growth, in particular their decoupling in recent years. We estimate a correlated unobserved components model that allows for both persistent and cyclical time variation in the employment impact of GDP as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010891246