Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the West has been intensively discussing its support strategy. Hawkish positions of strengthening Ukraine via armaments, financial resources, and sanctions against Russia compete with dovish views of avoiding further escalation of the...

Population size and structure in conjunction with the participation behavior are the determinants of labor supply. Thereby, among the demographic components, migration is the one shaping both the size and the structure of a population the strongest in the short to medium term while...

The war in Ukraine triggered a global trade shock, with German exports to Russia also collapsing abruptly. Using this break, we analyse whether the exports were redirected to other destinations. We divide the world market into three regions: domestic, eurozone, and the rest of the world (ROW)....

This paper examines how the shift towards working from home during and after the Covid-19 pandemic shapes the way how labor market and locality choices interact. For our analysis, we combine large administrative data on employment biographies in Germany and a new working from home potential...

Advanced economies will face population decline in the years and decades to come, particularly among those of working age. Yet, there is little empirical evidence of corresponding labor market implications. Tackling this shortcoming from a historical macroeconomic point of view, we compile a new...

On the labour markets, recent decades were characterised by structural supply-side reforms in many countries. Following its hawkish reforms from the 2000s, Germany has recently made a dovish turnaround. Conditions in basic income support for unemployed became more generous. Before, a temporary...

This paper develops a large-scale algorithm‑based application to improve the match quality in the labor market. We use comprehensive administrative data on employment biographies in Germany to predict job match quality in terms of job stability and wages. The models are estimated with both...

This paper investigates the time-varying relationship between German output and employment growth, in particular their decoupling in recent years. We estimate a correlated unobserved components model that allows for both persistent and cyclical time variation in the employment impact of GDP as...

This paper investigates the role of mismatch between job seekers and job openings for the forecasting performance of a labor market matching function. In theory, higher mismatch lowers matching efficiency which increases the risk that the vacancies cannot be filled within the usual period of...

The paper investigates the predictive power of a new survey implemented by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) for forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA's regional agencies are asked about their expectations of future labor market developments. We...