Ethnic diversity plays a crucial role in shaping national economic and social policy. A change in the ethnic composition of a country affects citizens' everyday life and social environment and may challenge present societal values, such as solidarity with and trust in fellowcitizens. Based on...

It is broadly accepted that two aspects regarding the modeling strategy are essential for the accuracy of forecast: a parsimonious model focusing on the important structures, and the quality of prospective information. Here, we establish a Global VAR framework, a technique that considers a...

Using high-quality administrative data, I analyze workers' opportunity costs of reallocation across occupations by measuring the additional time spent in unemployment before being hired in a new occupation. Furthermore, I inspect the wage changes after reallocation and find that workers who...

We construct a new Markov-switching unobserved components framework for the analysis of hysteresis effects. Our model unifies the ingredients of trend-cycle decomposition, identification of spillovers between the components and asymmetry over the business cycle. Employing the model for Germany...

We sharpen tests for "discouragement" and "added worker" effects by splitting the explanatory variable - the unemployment rate - into a short-term and a long-term component. While short-term unemployment might not result in additional workers on a large scale, long-term unemployment reduces...

This paper proposes a simple multi-industry trade model with search frictions in the labor market. Unimpeded access to global financial markets enables capital owners to invest abroad, thereby fostering unemployment at the extensive industry margin. Whether a country benefits from FDI in terms...

Using German data this study applies an unobserved-components approach to disentangle the unemployment rate into a (stochastic) trend and a cyclical part and to estimate the influence of these components on labor participation. The persistent trend component of unemployment, which triggers...

This paper proposes a multi-industry trade model with integrated capital and goods markets. Labor market imperfections in line with Mortensen and Pissarides (1994) give rise to unemployment and a channel for the government to influence markets through institutional changes. Labor market...

So far little empirical evidence exists on how real wages of newly hired workers react to business cycle conditions. This paper aims at filling this gap for Germany by analyzing the cyclical behavior of real wages of newly hired workers while controlling for 'cyclical upgrading' and 'cyclical...

This paper provides detailed empirical evidence on the scope of mismatch in Germany in the past decade, using a comprehensive administrative data set that allows for disaggregation at the levels of industry, occupation and region. The findings suggest that regional mismatch did not play an...