This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. The labour force participation rates...

We discuss the design and examine the inflow of participants in two new subsidised employment programmes (§ 16 e/i German Social Code II) that aim to help long-term welfare recipients in Germany to find a job and increase their social participation. We describe the programmes in terms of goals...

Applications of multiple imputation have long outgrown the traditional context of dealing with item nonresponse in cross-sectional datasets. Nowadays multiple imputation is also applied to impute missing values in hierarchical datasets, address confidentiality concerns, combine data from...

In this paper we examine how employment and hiring processes develop in the course of digitalisation in German establishments. To this end we use a large representative business survey - the IAB Job Vacancy Survey - that was extended in 2015 to include special questions about the state of...

We document the sources behind the costs of job loss over the business cycle using administrative data from Germany. Losses in annual earnings after displacement are large, persistent, and highly cyclical, nearly doubling in size during downturns. A large part of the long-term earnings losses...

Fertility in the US exhibits an increasingly more procyclical pattern. We argue that women's breadwinner status is behind procyclical fertility: (i) women's relative income in the family has increased over time; and (ii) women are more likely to work in relatively stable and countercyclical...

Drawing on newly available panel data, this paper presents an empirical analysis of the wage effects of changing job tasks, assessed for individuals at their workplace. I am therefore able to exploit within-occupation within-individual variation, over time, to study wage returns to cognitive,...

Der Mangel an wissenschaftlichen Analysen über die horizontale berufliche Mobilität ist vor allem das Ergebnis der Definitions- und Interpretationsprobleme, die mit der Operationalisierung dieses Sachverhaltes verbunden sind. Operationalisiert man berufliche Mobilität über Wechsel der...

The empirical literature on unemployment almost exclusively focuses on the duration of distinct unemployment spells. In contrast we use a large German administrative micro data set for the time span 19752004 to investigate individual lifetime unemployment (defined as the total length of all...

Das Discussion Paper untersucht die Struktur und das Ausmaß der intergenerationalen Einkommensmobilität in Deutschland. Anhand der Daten des deutschen sozioökonomischen Panels ist es möglich, sowohl Vater-Sohn als auch Vater-Tochter Paare zu untersuchen. In einem ersten Schritt geschieht...