This paper analyzes the performative impact of the European Commission's model for estimating 'potential output', which is used as a yardstick for measuring the 'structural budget balance' of EU countries and, hence, is crucial for coordinating European fiscal policies. In pre-crisis years,...

This paper analyses the short-run effects of fiscal consolidation measures on economic activity in the euro area during the euro crisis. It presents new econometric estimates on the link between cumulative GDP growth and fiscal austerity measures during 2011-2013. The main empirical finding is...

Using an annual data set covering 17 OECD countries over the time period 1978-2013, this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on income inequality in the short- and medium-run. By estimating impulse response functions from local projections, we find that fiscal...

This policy study asks to what extent large-scale public investment efforts could be a viable tool to provide the necessary infrastructure to break Europe's dependency on fossil fuel and carbon emissions more broadly. We estimate semi-structural VAR models for the EU27. These are used to study...

This paper addresses the issue of unanticipated incentives and related unintended consequences of monocular accounting as practiced in the context of the European Union's stability and growth pact. Specifically, the Maastricht treaty establishes criteria and rules to ensure budgetary discipline...

The European Fiscal Compact (FC) entered into force by 1 January, 2013 in 25 EU Member States. With the ratification the signatory countries commit significant parts of their budget to the European Commission and the European Court of Justice, which indicates a shift of power from legislative to...

This paper analyzes the determinants of the European Commission's NAIRU estimates for 14 European OECD countries during 1985-2012. The NAIRU is a poor proxy for 'structural unemployment': Labor market institutions - employment protection legislation, union density, tax wedge, minimum wages -...

This paper analyses economic developments in the Eurozone over the period 1999-2016 by developing a theoretical framework that traces divergent path developments across Eurozone countries to the times before the financial crisis. We argue that macroeconomic divergence between core and periphery...

This paper analyzes the impact of economic ideas on political processes and decision-making by focusing on the role and impact of the European Commission's "potential output model". The potential output model represents a core pillar in European fiscal policy coordination, that is, in executing...