Estimating and pricing correlation of credit deterioration is difficult, but can be handled with standard notions of correlation. The same however is not true for default events. The notion of correlation that one needs to use in dealing with credit default is fundamentally different from the...

The price of a European option can be computed as the expected value of the payoff function under the risk-neutral measure. For American options and path-dependent options in general, this principle can not be applied. In this paper, we derive a model-free analytical formula for the implied...

The article examines whether commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of equity returns. Alongside a long-only equally-weighted portfolio of commodity futures, we employ as an alternative commodity risk factor a term structure portfolio that captures the propensity of commodity futures...

This paper investigates the role of credit and liquidity factors in explaining corporate CDS price changes during normal and crisis periods. We find that liquidity risk is more important than credit risk regardless of market conditions. Moreover, in the period prior to the recent ‘Great...

We consider whether imposing long-run restrictions on survey respondents’ long-horizon forecasts will enhance their accuracy. The restrictions are motivated by the belief that the macro-variables consumption, investment and output move together in the long run, and that this should be evident...

Annuities are perceived as being illiquid financial instruments, and this has limited their attractiveness to consumers and inclusion in financial models. However, short positions in annuities can be replicated using life insurance and debt, permitting long positions in annuities to be offset,...

This study presents and empirically tests a simple framework that examines the effects of market liquidity (the ease with which stocks are traded) and funding liquidity (the ease with which market participants can obtain funding) on stock market bubbles. Three key findings emerge from this...

We derived a model-free analytical approximation of the price of a multi-asset option defined over an arbitrary multivariate process, applying a semi-parametric expansion of the unknown risk-neutral density with the moments. The analytical expansion termed as the Multivariate Generalised...

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting early revisions to US GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently anticipate the first-revised estimate of GDP, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily...

An algorithm to generate samples with approximate first-, second-, and third-order moments is presented extending the Cholesky matrix decomposition to a Cholesky tensor decomposition of an arbitrary order. The tensor decomposition of the first-, second-, and third-order objective moments...