Este informe se concentra en el desempeño macroeconómico de la región en el contexto de un deterioro desusadamente marcado y brusco de las condiciones externas. Con el objeto de evaluar las opciones de políticas que haya disponibles, en este informe se desarrolla un marco de referencia para...

This report focuses on the region's macroeconomic performance in the context of an unusually sharp and rapid deterioration in external conditions. To assess policy options, the report develops a framework to identify the critical trade-offs faced by countries in the region, and evaluates these...

The central objective of this discussion paper is to present a simple explanation of recent financial crises and, on that basis, to discuss some policy options for individual countries. Systemic policies are not discussed. More emphasis is put on understanding the nature of these crises than on...

This paper discusses the economic performance of Latin America in the last decade, paying special attention to growth and the financial sector. In particular, it shows that external factors, such as like U.S. interest rates and the business cycle, play a key role in capital inflows, investment,...

The paper argues that Emerging Market economies (EMs) face financial vulnerabilities that weaken the effectiveness of a domestic Lender of Last Resort (LOLR). As a result, monetary policy is inextricably linked to the state of the credit market. In particular, the central bank should be ready to...

This paper discusses the changing pattern of capital flows to developing countries. The analysis is heavily colored by recent events. It concentrates on the principal facts, developments, and policies that characterize the current episode of capital inflows to Asia and Latin America.

Using a sample of 110 developed and developing countries for the period 1990-2004, this paper analyzes the characteristics of systemic sudden stops (3S) in capital flows and the relevance of balance-sheet effects in the likelihood of their materialization. A small supply of tradable goods...

This paper offers an alternative explanation for t he fall of Argentina's Convertibility Program based on the country's vulnerability to Sudden Stops in capital flows. Sudden Stops are typically accompanied by a substantial increase in the real exchange rate that wreaks havoc in countries that...

Using a sample of 32 developed and developing countries we analyze the empirical characteristics of Sudden Stops in capital flows and the relevance of balance-sheet effects in the likelihood of their occurrence. We find that large real exchange rate (RER) fluctuations accompanied by Sudden Stops...

At the time of writing there were widespread concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. There is conclusive evidence that the pace of growth has slowed, which has prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on two occasions (a total of 100 basis points thus far). As usual, when faced...