We assess whether the voting records of central bank boards are informative about future monetary policy. First, we specify a theoretical model of central bank board decision-making and simulate the voting outcomes. Three different versions of model are estimated with simulated data: 1)...

This paper aims to contribute to a better understanding on how inflation targets are set. For this reason, we first gather evidence from official central bank and government publications and from a questionnaire sent to central banks on how inflation targets are set; we then estimate the...

We examine the evolution of monetary policy rules in a group of inflation targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom), applying a moment-based estimator in a time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. Using this novel flexible framework, our...

We introduce a dynamic banking-macro model, which abstains from conventional mean-reversion assumptions and in which - similar to Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2010) - adverse asset-price movements and their impact on risk premia and credit spreads can induce instabilities in the banking sector. To...

The prominent role of monetary policy in the U.S. interwar depression has been conventional wisdom since Friedman and Schwartz [1963]. This paper presents evidence on both the surprise and the systematic components of monetary policy between 1929 and 1933. Doubts surrounding GDP estimates for...

This paper intends to fill two gaps in the Optimal Currency Area literature. First of all, Mundell's original idea has very little formalmodel theoretical underpinning. Second, it almost exclusively views countries contemplating monetary unification as single economies. We question this view and...

Human capital investment is formed through households' endogenous decision, and competes with physical capital investment. Idiosyncratic shock shifts the skilled labor share and changes tightness in both skilled and unskilled markets. Given inelastic labor participation, the model can generate...

Recent studies proposed news about future technology growth as the main driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. The identification of these news through stock prices in SVARs has been criticized in the past. Therefore, I propose a series of experiments to test that hypothesis by examining its...

The purpose of this paper is to answer the question of whether the switching to the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime is necessary for the Egyptian case or not? Our judgment of applying IT regime in the Egyptian economy is established on doubled criterion. That is, the practical experience of the...

This paper demonstrates that tractability gained from the Calvo pricing assumption is costly in terms of aggregate dynamics. I derive a generalized New Keynesian Phillips curve featuring a generalized hazard function, non-zero steady state inflation and real rigidity. Analytically, I find that...