Showing 1 - 10 of 20
This paper presents the blueprint of a new ECB multi-country model. The version documented in the following pages is estimated on euro area data. As a prelude to the country models, this version is meant to enhance the understanding of the main model mechanisms, enlarge the suite of area wide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098167
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640356
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003387481
We estimate the effects of interest rate forward guidance (FG) using a parsimonious VAR, augmented with survey forecast data. The identification strategy of FG shocks via sign and zero restrictions is successfully tested by the recovery of true IRFs from simulated data. The identified shocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012318803
Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the economy. In standard quantitative macroeconomic models, the expectations are unobserved state variables and little scrutiny is devoted to analysing the dynamic behaviour of these expectations. We show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241110
We introduce a specification of habit formation featuring non-separability between consumption and leisure into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. The model can be estimated with standard Bayesian techniques and the bond pricing implications are evaluated using higher-order...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009405588
In the empirical literature, monetary policy shocks are commonly measured as an innovation to a short-term nominal interest rate. In contrast, the majority of monetary business cycle models treats a broad monetary aggregate as the central bank's policy measure. We try overcome this disparity and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724428
This paper examines how money demand induced real balance effects contribute to the determination of the price level, as suggested by Patinkin (1949,1965), and if they affect conditions for local equilibrium uniqueness and stability. There exists a unique price level sequence that is consistent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002817422
This paper examines monetary policy implementation in a sticky price model. The central bank's plan under discretionary optimization is entirely forward-looking and exhibits multiple equilibrium solutions if transactions frictions are not negligibly small. The central bank can then implement...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003162225
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011288725