Negative correlations between inflation and demographic aging have been observed across developed nations recently. To understand the phenomenon from a political economy perspective, we embed the fiscal theory of the price level into an overlapping-generations model. We suppose that short-lived...

Recent financial turmoil and existing empirical evidence suggest that adverse shocks to the financial intermediary (FI) sector cause substantial economic downturns. The quantitative significance of these shocks to the U.S. business cycle, however, has not received much attention up to now. To...

Optimal commitment policy under the zero lower bound entails a high degree of complexity and time-inconsistency in a stochastic economy. This paper proposes a time-invariant duration policy that mitigates those problems and facilitates policy implementation and communication while retaining...

We consider the fiscal multiplier and spillover in an environment in which two countries are caught simultaneously in a liquidity trap. Using an optimizing two-country sticky price model, we show that the fiscal multiplier and spillover are contrary to those predicted in textbook economics. For...

Based on the financial accelerator model of Bernanke et al. (1999), we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model for a chain of credit contracts in which financial intermediaries (hereafter FIs) as well as entrepreneurs are subject to credit constraints. Financial intermediation takes place...

In this paper, we investigate the determinants of households' inflation expectations in Japan and the United States. We estimate a vector autoregression model in which the four endogenous variables are inflation expectations, inflation, the short-term nominal interest rate and the output gap,...

We construct a simple model in which a central bank communicates with money market traders. We demonstrate that there exist multiple equilibria. In one equilibrium, traders truthfully reveal their own information, and by learning this, the central bank can make better forecasts. Another...

We evaluate the implications of spread-adjusted Taylor rules and capital injection policies in response to adverse shocks to the economy, using a variant of the financial accelerator model. Our model comprises the two credit-constrained sectors that raise external finance under the credit market...