We call the realized variance (RV) calculated with observed prices contaminated by microstructure noises (MNs) the noise-contaminated RV (NCRV) and refer to the component in the NCRV associated with the MNs as the MN component. This paper develops a method for estimating the integrated variance...

In this paper, we propose a simple methodology for investigating how shocks to trend and cycle are correlated in unidentified unobserved components models, in which the correlation is not identified. The proposed methodology is applied to U.S. and U.K. real GDP data. We find that the correlation...

In this paper, we propose a test for coefficient stability of an AR(1) model against the random coefficient autoregressive model of order 1 or RCA(1) model without assuming a stationary nor a non- stationary process under the null hypothesis of constant coefficient. The proposed test is obtained...

In this paper, we develop the asymptotic theory of Hwang and Basawa (2005) for explosive random coefficient autoregressive (ERCA) models. Applying the theory, we prove that a locally best invariant (LBI) test in McCabe and Tremayne (1995), which is for the null of a unit root (UR) process...

This paper investigates the spurious effect in forecasting asset returns when signals from technical trading rules are used as predictors. Against economic intuition, the simulation result shows that, even if past information has non predictive power, buy or sell signals based on the difference...

We show that deviations from long-run stability of product prices are optimal in the presence of endogenous producer entry and product variety in a sticky-price model with monopolistic competition in which price stability would be optimal in the absence of entry. Specifically, a long-run...

We test whether professional forecasters forecast rationally or behaviorally using a unique database, QSS Database, which is the monthly panel of forecasts on Japanese stock prices and bond yields. The estimation results show that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, namely, significantly...

In this paper, we first set up a model that incorporates firm dynamics into the Global Economy Model (henceforth, GEM) developed by the IMF Research Department. Then, we show how the economic variables respond to the shocks that shift the production frontier outwards, namely productivity gains...

Three decades have passed since China dramatically opened up to the global market and began to catch up rapidly with leading economies. In this paper we discuss the effects of Chinafs opening-up and rapid growth on the welfare of both China and the rest of the world (ROW). We find that the...