forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting … ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility … variation, we formally develop the links between the conditional covariancematrix and the concept of realized volatility. Next …

portfolio diversification when the market is most volatile. Our findings are broadly consistent with a latent volatility fact or …We exploit direct model-free measures of daily equity return volatility and correlation obtained from high …, solidify and extend existing characterizations of stock return volatility and correlation. We find that the unconditional …

daily exchange rate volatility and correlation, covering an entire decade. In addition to being model-free, our estimates …-inducing volatility transformation, high contemporaneous correlation across volatilities, high correlation between correlation and …

This paper develops mew robust inference procedures for analyzing the intraday return volatility patterns that …, Lyons, and Melvin (1998) (ILM) argue that this deregulation resulted in a highly significant shift in the volatility pattern …

Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …

This paper characterizes the volatility in the DM-dollar foreign exchange market using an annual sample of five … announcement effects, and the volatility persistence, or ARCH effects, familiar from lower frequency returns. The different … modeled, constitute an extremely valuable and vastly underutilized resource for better understanding the volatility dynamics …

Recent empirical evidence suggests that the long-run dependence in financial market volatility is best characterized by … a slowly mean-reverting fractionally integrated process. At the same time, much shorter-lived volatility dependencies …-of-distributions hypothesis interpretation of the latent volatility process in rationalizing this behavior. By interpreting the overall volatility …

intraday data and nonparametric volatility measures, along with a new jump detection technique and appropriate conditional … alleviate microstructure frictions for realized volatility estimation. Size and power of the procedure are explored through …

A rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in financial return volatility measurement and … return volatility. In an application to the DM/$ exchange rate, the S&P500 market index, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond … non-jump movements in a simple but sophisticated volatility forecasting model, we find that almost all of the …