Persistent differences in interest rates across countries account for much of the profitability of currency carry trade … finished goods. This pattern arises in a complete-markets model with trade specialization and limited shipping capacity … producers. Empirically, a commodity-based strategy explains a substantial portion of the carry-trade risk premia, and all of …

This paper describes the updating of the NBER trade dataset, which now provides U.S. import and export values to the … year 2001, disaggregated by Harmonized System (HS), Standard International Trade Classification (SITC), and the U … years 1989-2001. Earlier CD-ROMs distributed by the NBER described data on U.S. imports and exports from 1972-1994, and …

or stifle innovation. Using three distinct sources of variation to identify rising trade exposure, we provide a causal …, profitability, and R&D expenditure all decline within trade-exposed firms. The trade-induced contraction along all margins of …

is centered in trade-exposed local labor markets and that commences prior to the divisive 2016 U.S. presidential election …. Exploiting the exogenous component of rising trade with China and classifying legislator ideologies by congressional voting … disproportionately removed moderate representatives from office in the 2000s. Trade-exposed districts with an initial majority white …

productivity and country-specific variables. In contrast to canonical export models where firm profits are additively separable … generate heterogeneous domestic sourcing responses to trade shocks …

This paper documents large cross-country differences in the long run volatility of the real exchange rate. In … exchange rate in industrial countries. The paper tests whether this difference in volatility can be explained by the fact that … the difference in RER volatility between developing and industrial countries. Results from ARCH estimations confirm that …

productivity growth as well as local exposures to global shocks--technology, trade, immigration, and population aging--predict the …

This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings … the terms of trade in contrast to what conventional consumption-smoothing models would predict. The second part tests for … the existence of asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various …

change the terms of trade and raise the prices of imported goods. Two indexation rules are considered, the traditional form … terms of trade rather than import prices alone respond to disturbances, since changes in the terms of trade determine what …