This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that boom in private consumption in Iceland was facilitated by easing household credit conditions, tax cuts, rapidly rising housing and equity wealth, and an appreciating real exchange rate. As a result, the output gap peaked at over 5 percent in...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tonga’s real GDP growth is estimated to turn negative in FY06/07, declining by 3½ percent. The economy will continue to be subject to uncertainty and shocks. While economic growth should return to positive, albeit low, levels in the...

The IMF has approved an exceptional access Stand-By Arrangement for Latvia. The program is part of a coordinated international effort that has improved financial and economic stability. By early 2008, the fast growth has leveled off but severe vulnerabilities turned the slowdown into a crisis....

This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Peru. The economy continued to perform well in 2004. Real GDP grew by 5.1 percent, inflation was 3.5 percent at end-December, and the fiscal deficit of the combined public sector narrowed to 1.1 percent of...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that real GDP in South Africa grew by 5 percent in 2006 and continued to grow vigorously in early 2007. Growth was driven by strong domestic demand, with private consumption and investment spending supported by continuing robust consumer and business...

This paper presents an Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement for Uruguay. Uruguay has had a series of Stand-By Arrangements that were treated mostly as precautionary between March 1996 and early 2002. These were viewed as a helpful seal of approval, and a vehicle for intensive IMF...

The staff report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation on the People’s Republic of China highlights economic developments, policy discussions, and structural reforms. A larger external current account surplus, together with strong capital inflows, led to a further sizable increase in gross...

The 2007 Article IV Consultation on the Republic of Kazakhstan focuses on the appropriate policy response to mounting banking sector risks and continuing inflation pressures. Banking sector risks are mounting and inflation remains relatively high. The authorities intend to continue raising...

The principal policy task in Hungary is to place public finances on a sound footing. For monetary policy, the challenge is to identify one-off inflationary influences, communicate these to the public and financial markets, and deal with second-round effects. From a risk-management perspective, a...

This Selected Issues paper examines the factors behind the recent surge in capital flows in Japan. The paper presents econometric evidence on the influence of these capital flows on the medium-term dynamics of the yen. It finds that in the case of the yen–dollar rate, nontrade factors...