This Selected Issues paper discusses fiscal sustainability and capital expenditures for Equatorial Guinea. The paper formulates a permanent income hypothesis model and estimates it using data on oil revenues from Equatorial Guinea. The first methodology is based on a standard permanent income...

This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Bulgaria. Performance in 2006 was broadly satisfactory, although structural reform implementation was weaker than expected. Notably, the government postponed until mid-2007 the launching of the electronic...

This Selected Issues paper on Luxembourg reports that exemplary high growth rates and prudent fiscal policies provided the financial basis for the welfare system. Social expenditures in per capita terms, even adjusted for the large number of cross-border workers, rank highest among European...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bulgaria’s large external imbalance has continued to widen. Driven by massive capital inflows, particularly foreign direct investment inflows, the current account deficit could reach a record level of 20 percent of GDP in 2007. Although...

The current account deficit in Bulgaria, which doubled in 2005 to 11.8 percent of GDP, deteriorated further to 14.6 percent of GDP during the first four months of 2006. The current account deficit continues to be substantially financed by foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Fiscal policy has...

Barbados' economy continued to grow, but macroeconomic imbalances worsened. Executive Directors observed that the imbalances are owed to a procyclical fiscal stance, and advised to tighten monetary policy and safeguard the fixed exchange rate regime as an anchor of macroeconomic stability. They...

This paper discusses Serbia and Montenegro’s Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Proposed Post-Program Monitoring. Program implementation since the fifth review has been mixed, delaying...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the underlying sources of growth in Uganda, suggesting that the contribution to growth from total factor productivity has been minor, while the high population growth poses a significant challenge to sustain a rapid improvement in living standards. The paper...

This Selected Issues paper examines the sources of real growth in Guinea. It identifies and quantifies the impact on real GDP growth of both the exogenous shocks and the policy changes that have occurred since 2000. The paper offers, first, some empirical evidence on real GDP growth in Guinea...

Economic outcomes in Jamaica have fallen short of the authorities’ objectives in recent years. As the government looks to reinvigorate its growth and debt reduction strategy, it is instructive to examine how exogenous shocks and other unanticipated developments can affect economic...