Showing 1 - 10 of 15
This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analy-sis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005142016
This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analy-sis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599162
The relationship between temporary terms of trade shocks and household saving in developing countries is examined. It is first shown that, from a theoretical standpoint, this relationship is ambiguous: private saving may rise or fall in response to a transitory terms of trade shock, depending on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008914105
The issue of whether the money supply can serve as a nominal anchor for the domestic price level under real exchange rate targeting is examined. When capital controls are perfect, so that there is complete separation between official and unofficial foreign exchange markets, the domestic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008914878
It is often argued that the parallel market premium is a useful indicator of real exchange rate misalignment in developing countries. The empirical evidence, however, does not suggest a robust correlation between these two endogenous variables that is independent of the nature of economic shocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008915109
Trade liberalization in developing countries is frequently opposed on the grounds that, because it is likely to cause a deterioration in the external balance, it may not be a viable policy option for countries facing foreign exchange constraints. Recent literature suggests, however, an ambiguous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008915131
Uncertainty about the export earnings accruing to a country (sometimes referred to as export instability) is an important source of macroeconomic uncertainty in many developing countries. Theory predicts that countries should react to increases in this form of uncertainty by increasing their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008915155
The relationship between real interest rates, saving, and growth is a central issue in development economics. Using macroeconomic data for a cross-section of countries, we estimate a model in which the intertemporal elasticity of substitution varies with the level of wealth. The estimated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008915160
An intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy is used to analyze how terms of trade changes affect real exchange rates and the trade balance. Temporary current, (expected) future, and permanent changes in the terms of trade are considered. The results suggest that the relationship...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008915430
The macroeconomic effects of a variety of exogenous and policy-induced real disturbances are examined under the assumption that the authorities target the level of the real exchange rate. We first discuss the implications--particularly for inflation and the current account--of targeting the rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008915620